War Escalation & European Security Analysis

THRESHOLD Briefs

All analyses

Long-form strategic assessments built from the same evidence state as the current dashboard.

Analysis illustration: Are we closer to 2021 or February 2022?

THRESHOLD Briefs

Will Russia go to war with NATO?

Are Russia’s current actions bringing us closer to a war with NATO? Before the invasion of Ukraine, the world was aware of a significant portion of Russia’s preparations, yet until just days before the invasion, there was still debate over the Kremlin’s intentions. We examine the current situation and whether a war between NATO and Russia is indeed inevitable.

79 min read · 2026-09-15

THRESHOLD Briefs

Suwałki Gap: why Poland is part of any Baltic scenario

Geography does not make war inevitable, but it makes Baltic security impossible to analyse without Poland.

9 min read · 2026-09-12

Analysis illustration: Escalation by increments: how X+1 can become a war nobody planned

THRESHOLD Briefs

Escalation, Step by Step: How X+1 Can Become a War Nobody Planned

Why individually rational, limited responses can collectively cross the threshold into direct conflict.

50 min read · 2026-09-09