Not a prediction engine
The monitor describes observable escalation conditions; it does not output a probability of war.
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Analytical framework / V0.1
Methodology
A transparent framework for distinguishing changes in strategic risk from noise, routine activity and unsupported claims.
Facts separated from assessments
Readers can see where reporting ends and analytical judgment begins.
Confidence stated explicitly
Confidence reflects the quality, independence and consistency of available sample sources.
Fixed color criteria
Levels follow defined indicators, not headline tone.
Single unverified posts cannot move a level
An early signal requires independent corroboration.
Every future live snapshot should preserve the same analytical separation: observable fact, assessed impact, confidence, source basis and change from the previous state.