THRESHOLD BriefsUpdated
Are we closer to 2021 or February 2022?
Comparing current Russia–NATO signals with the warning pattern preceding the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
18 min read · 2026-09-17
THRESHOLD Briefs
All analyses
Long-form strategic assessments built from the same evidence state as the current dashboard.
THRESHOLD BriefsUnchanged
Suwałki Gap: why Poland is part of any Baltic scenario
Geography does not make war inevitable, but it makes Baltic security impossible to analyse without Poland.
9 min read · 2026-09-12
THRESHOLD BriefsMaterially revised
Escalation by increments: how X+1 can become a war nobody planned
Why individually rational, limited responses can collectively cross the threshold into direct conflict.
13 min read · 2026-09-16