Russia
Long-range strikes
Strikes on targets in western Ukraine repeated
Compressed warning time raises incident risk near NATO territory.
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THRESHOLD History
Escalation-state history
A longitudinal view of the analytical index. Values represent assessed escalation state, not probability, and all values shown are sample data.
THRESHOLD Index · escalation position
1.6
Event log
Latest events
Recent developments informing the current assessment.
Poland
Readiness
Air-defence readiness raised
Improves detection and response during the strike wave.
NATO
Surveillance
Elevated regional surveillance maintained
Supports situational awareness without crossing a deployment threshold.
Belarus
Exercises
Exercises continued near Poland and Lithuania
Warrants monitoring, but no offensive grouping is confirmed.
Russia
Hybrid operations
Cyber activity remained above baseline
Sustains grey-zone pressure without changing the main assessment.
NATO
Air policing
Air patrols maintained an elevated tempo
Reinforces deterrence and reduces vulnerability to misreading.
Russia
Regional activity
No new mass concentration against NATO observed
Remains a key difference from the 2021/22 pattern.
Baltic States
Resilience
Border monitoring and civil-defence planning continued
The posture is defensive and does not indicate a new escalation threshold.
Russia
Airspace
Further navigation risk noted near the border zone
Raises the risk of an unintended escalation sequence.
USA
Deterrence
Regional reassurance activity maintained
Supports deterrence without signalling preparation for direct combat.